The Indian Department of Meteorology (IMD) on March 1 has officially announced the start of the summer season in India. The Met Department has released the ‘Seal Season Outlook for Temperature March to May 2021’. The upcoming season is expected to be warmer than usual in many parts of India except for some southern states.
What does the 2021 summer season predict?
Most climates and regions in the North, Northwest and North-East India, in addition to a few areas in the East will have very high temperatures (season) in March, April and May. Above normal temperatures (at certain times of the year) is also predicted in the Himalayan foothills, in the northeast and in the south for the next three months.
However, most provinces in South and Central India will experience normal night temperatures, as they are expected to stay close to normal or below this time of year.
IMD released this forecast on the basis of the first February weather forecast and uses the index of its previous summer forecast published annually between 2003-2018.
In April, IMD will release an updated season view from the months of April to June.
Which regions can get the hottest season this year?
The Indo Gangetic Plains – Punjab, Chandigarh, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are likely to experience temperatures that will be higher than normal in March, April and May. Here, high temperatures can rise to 0.71 degrees Celsius above the average Long Period (LPA).
Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Konkan in Maharashtra have been clearly warned of the hot summer season this year, when unbalanced solar temperatures could fluctuate between 0.25 and 0.86 degrees above normal LPA.
Met officials said the night could be warmer than usual this time of year especially in southern countries.
“This is because it is possible that the humidity created by the area or the rain that led to the warm and hot nights,” said D Sivanand Pai, chief, Climate Research and Services at IMD, Pune.
Will there be more heatwaves than usual?
India is prone to temperature waves, which are pronounced when temperatures rise above 4 degrees from normal recordings.
It is not possible to predict the exact number of temperature, space or intensity events in Outlook Annual, given for a period of three months, in this case, and nationwide.
But past records show that heatwaves are common in the Core Heatwave Zone (CHZ) areas every summer. CHZ includes Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Maharashtra, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
Hot summers may be associated with some of these provinces.
Pai said that some of these regions fall under the Core Heatwave Zone. Therefore, these countries should expect regular or additional heatwave events this year. Predicting the intensity and intensity of the heat can be better predicted as the season continues using IMD’s Extended Range Predictions predictions released four weeks earlier.
What role will La Nina play during this season of warm air ?
La Nina is a phenomenon occurring in the Pacific Ocean where sea temperatures along its central belt and the equator remain cooler than usual. Although high temperatures are associated with El Nino and the opposite of La Nina, both of these oceans have global warming.
In the meantime, the central force La Nina conquers the Pacific Ocean. Although it is now nearing the end of its cycle, the Met office has confirmed that it will rule all summer with its remaining remnants in June.
Pai said that La Nina tends to be colder than normal temperatures and is not the only thing that affects temperatures in the summer months and that also there are other atmospheric and ocean boundaries, collective air features that determine summer temperatures in India.