India may cross China as most populous sooner than thought. The Chinese population is growing at the lowest rate in decades, the latest census data released on Tuesday showed, the country has only added 72 million people over the past decade. The annual growth rate was 0.53% over the past 10 years, down from 0.57% between 2000 and 2010, bringing the population at 1.41 billion. The national population was 1.41178 billion on November 1.
Recent data suggests that China is on track to overtake India as a densely populated country, which is expected to happen by 2025. India’s population last year was estimated by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs at 1.38 billion, or 1.5% behind China.
India has maintained 2.3 of the fertility rate, which indicates that its population could surpass China’s in 2023 or 2024, He Yafu, an independent statistician, told Chinese media on Tuesday, ahead of a recent UN forecast.
China’s population growth rate has been slow since 1953, when the first census was conducted. The slowdown in growth – even though Beijing abolished the one-child policy in 2016 after it took effect in the late 1970s – will add pressure to Beijing to promote childbearing as the world’s most populous age and economically viable population. burden.
New census results show that China’s population “… is not only declining but also its population structure is growing with increasing numbers of older people, it will serve as an important reference for Chinese people’s policy reform and retirement plans, which could come in a year or two”, said a news report. of the state.
Ning Jizhe, head of China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said 12 million babies were born last year – a dramatic decline from 18 million in 2016 and 14.65 million in 2019.
Ning added that it was a significant number. He also said the low birth rate was a natural result of China’s social and economic development.
The average Chinese population stood at 38.8 by 2020 compared to 38 in the US. By 2050, the gap is set to widen as China’s middle age rises to 55-56 and the US to 44-45. The current average population of India is 29 years and is expected to grow to 38 by 2050, giving the country a significant opportunity for the people.
The situation of the Chinese people is similar to that of Japan, South Korea, and other developed countries facing the problem of aging and the people who depend on it. But it will have to deal with the fact that, unlike developed countries, China has not yet been able to produce the same levels of domestic economy.
The census found there was a rapid decline in Chinese labor in the last decade while the number of older people continued to increase. The number of people between the ages of 15 and 59 was 894 million, down 6.79 percent from the 2010 census.
Run tabloid Global Times reported saying that the number of people aged 60 and over has grown to 264 million, up from 177.6 million in the 2010 census, and the number of people aged 65 and over has grown to 190 million, from 118.8 million in the census in 2010.
Huang Wenzheng, a statistician at the Beijing-based Tank Center for China and Globalization, said: “That (census data) means that the official number of children born each year over the past decade was very accurate. It also means that the downturn is much more important than we expected years ago. ”
The two-child vaccine, which came into effect in 2016, has failed to contribute to lower birth rates. “Since the trend towards human development in recent years, population growth will continue to decline in the future,” said NBS chief Ning, adding that China’s population will live at more than 1.4 billion in the near future.
He Yafu, an independent statistician, told the Global Times that there was no doubt that China would “completely remove birth control restrictions in the near future,… which could remove its family planning policy early this fall during the sixth edition of the 19th Central Communist Party Committee. China (CPC) ”.
Completely tightening birth control limits may not be enough to prevent population collapse, or to prevent China from becoming one of Japan’s, say census experts, noting that Beijing should come up with more childbirth promotion measures, such as supporting couples who choose to have more than one child.